AFEX Report Forecasts Soybean, Sorghum Output Growth

In Short

AFEX says its 2026 Wet Season Crop Production Report predicts soybean and sorghum output will rise in 2026. The report is based on a survey of more than 41,000 smallholder farmers across 17 states.

What Happened: AFEX Wet Season Crop Production Report Forecasts

AFEX’s report predicts soybean production will rise by 11.3%, with output reaching 1.67 million metric tonnes in 2026. It also forecasts sorghum production will climb by 8% to almost 7 million metric tonnes.

AFEX says farmers are diversifying into crops that offer higher profits. Akinyinka Akintunde, Chief Executive Officer of AFEX Commodity Exchange, said the findings show the importance of reliable agricultural data for production, financing, and food supply decisions.

Akintunde said, “This is not desk research. It is the voice of Nigerian farmers, gathered field by field, and it deserves the attention of everyone.” He also said farmers are shifting toward crops with better economic returns due to changing market conditions, including declining profitability of maize production.

Akintunde said domestic maize prices fell by more than 40 per cent to approximately N348,000 per tonne in December 2025. He added that fertiliser prices increased by about 50 per cent compared with the previous season.

Ayodeji Balogun, Group Managing Director of AFEX, said the report is designed to provide a predictive basis for agricultural production planning and help stakeholders anticipate food supply challenges. He said the survey covered maize, paddy rice, soybean, sesame, sorghum, cashew, and cocoa.

Balogun said improved availability of agricultural inputs is one of the notable gains recorded in recent years. He said focus should now shift to improving farmers’ access to finance and capital.

Ayo Sotinrin, Managing Director of the Bank of Agriculture, said 57 per cent of farmers name limited access to finance as a main barrier to production. He also said agriculture contributes approximately 27.5 per cent to Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product, but the sector receives only seven per cent of total bank credit.

Why It Matters

The report links expected output growth to what farmers plant, and to what they can afford to produce. AFEX and the Bank of Agriculture both point to financing constraints as a key risk to sustaining higher production, even where inputs are more available.